Techniques for Futures Studies

未来研究のテクニック

1. Scanning

ざっと見渡す

Intelligence, Agreements:

Wider, Deeper, Longer

2. Forecasting

Simulations, Scenarios,

3. Planning

Vision, Mission, Goals, Strategy

4. Acting

Change, Results

Scenario 1

The "Standard Run" from The Limits To Growth

The world society proceeds along its historical path as long as possible without major policy change. Population and industry output grow until a combination of environmental and natural resource constraints eliminate the capacity of the capital sector to sustain investment. Industrial capital begins to depreciate faster than the new investment can rebuild it. As it falls, food and health services also fall, decreasing life expectancy and raising the death rate.

Now the simulated world is developing powerful technologies for pollution abatement, land yield enhancement, land protection, and conservation of nonrenewable resources all at once.

If the population adopts both a desired family size of two children and a deliberately moderated goal for industrial output per capita, it can maintain itself at a material standard of living 50% higher than the 1990 world average for almost 50 years.

In this secnario population and industrial output per person are moderated as in the previous model run, and in addition technologies are developed to conserve resources, protect agricultural land, increase land yield, and abate pollution. The resulting society sustains 7.7 billion people at a comfortable standard of living with high life expectancy and declining pollution until at least the year 2100.